das pariser klimaabkommen ergebnisse und

D A S PA R I S E R K L I M A A B K O M M E N
ERGEBNISSE UND AUSWIRKUNGEN
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Über mich ...
 Doktorand / Wissenschaftler am Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung
 Dissertation über Kooperationsmöglichkeiten in der internationalen Klimapolitik
 Ökonomische Betrachtung der Klimaverhandlungen mit Spieltheorie
 Berücksichtigung der spezieller Wirtschaftssituation einiger Länder, z.B. OPEC
 Unsicherheit
 Kooperation in speziellen Gruppen („climate clubs“)
 Außerdem: Forschungsprojekte zur internationalen Klimapolitik
 z.B. Beratung des Umweltbundesamts bei der Vorbereitung der Klimaverhandlungen
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Exkurs: Historie der Klimaverhandlungen
 1992: Rio Earth Summit: Gründung der Klimarahmenkonvention (United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC)
 Ziel: „stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
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would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system“
Fast universelle Mitgliedschaft, ratifiziert durch 197 Länder
Jährliche „Conferences of the Parties“ (COPs)
Entscheidungen werden per „Konsens“ getroffen
Unterscheidung zwischen
 Industrieländern („developed countries“, „Annex I countries“)
 Entwicklungsländern („developing countries“, „non-Annex I countries“)
 „The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future
generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their
common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly,
the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and
the adverse effects thereof.”
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Exkurs: Historie der Klimaverhandlungen
 1997: Kyoto Protokoll
 Bindende Emissionsziele für Industrieländer
 Keine Vorgaben für Entwicklungsländer
 Verpflichtungsperiode: 2008-2012, später Verlängerung bis 2020
 Ziele basierend auf 1990
 Kaum / keine Anstrengung zur Erreichung der Ziele nötig:
 Wirtschaftskrise von 2007
 „Hot Air“
 USA: Verhandelt unter Bill Clinton, keine Unterstützung von George W. Bush
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Exkurs: Historie der Klimaverhandlungen
 2009: COP15 in Kopenhagen
 Ziel: Verabschiedung eines „langfristigen“ Abkommens
 Scheitern der Verhandlungen trotz Anwesenheit von über 100 Regierungschefs
 Nicht-bindende „pledges“ der großen Länder („Copenhagen Accord“)
 Festschreibung des 2°C-Ziels
 2011: COP17 in Durban
 Start eines neuen Prozesses mit dem Ziel bis 2015 ein Abkommen zu verhandeln,
„applicable to all parties“
 2012 – 2015
 „Top-down“ (Kyoto) vs. „bottom-up“ (Copenhagen Accord)
 Bottom-up!
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INDCs
 Im Laufe des Jahres 2015 wurden von 187 Staaten „Beabsichtigte national bestimmte
Beiträge“ („Intended Nationally Determined Contributions“, INDCs) bei der UNFCCC
eingereicht.
 Diese führen zu einer Erwärmung von 2,7°C-3,0°C in 2100.
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Klima- und Emissionsziel
 Klimaziel
 “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above
pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C
above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and
impacts of climate change;”
 Emissionsziel
 “In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal [...], Parties aim to reach global
peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible and to undertake rapid
reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a
balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of
greenhouse gases in the second half of this century”
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P ro z e s s w e i t e re r B e i t r ä g e
 “Each Party shall prepare, communicate and maintain successive nationally determined
contributions that it intends to achieve. Parties shall pursue domestic mitigation
measures, with the aim of achieving the objectives of such contributions.”
 “Each Party shall communicate a nationally determined contribution every five years
[...].”
 Erstmals in 2020 mit Beiträgen für 2030 (neu oder aktualisiert).
 “Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution will represent a progression
beyond the Party’s then current nationally determined contribution and reflect its highest
possible ambition, reflecting its common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances.”
 “Global stocktake”
 Erstmals in 2018, danach alle fünf Jahre
 “the global stocktake shall inform Parties in updating and enhancing [...] their actions
and support”
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Finanzierung
 Bisherige Zusage der Industrieländer: $100 Milliarden in 2020
 PA: $100 Milliarden pro Jahr von Industrieländern ab 2020 sind „floor“ für neue
Finanzziele, gelten bis 2025
 “As part of a global effort, developed country Parties should continue to take the
lead in mobilizing climate finance from a wide variety of sources [...] and taking into
account the needs and priorities of developing country Parties. Such mobilization of
climate finance should represent a progression beyond previous efforts.”
 “Other Parties are encouraged to provide or continue to provide such support
voluntarily.”
 Regelmäßige Berichte über vergangene und zukünftige Finanzbeiträge von
Industrieländern
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Tr a n s p a re n z
 “In order to build mutual trust and confidence and to promote effective implementation,
an enhanced transparency framework for action and support [...] is hereby
established.”
 “Each Party shall regularly provide the following information:
 A national inventory report of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals
by sinks of greenhouse gases, prepared using good practice methodologies accepted
by the IPCC and agreed upon by the [...] Parties to the Paris Agreement;
 Information necessary to track progress made in implementing and achieving its
nationally determined contribution under Article 4.”
 “Information submitted by each Party under paragraphs 7 and 9 of this Article shall
undergo a technical expert review [...]”
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Anpassung und „Loss & Damage“
 Anpassung an den Klimawandel
 “Parties hereby establish the global goal on adaptation of enhancing adaptive
capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, [...] “
 Loss & Damage
 “Parties recognize the importance of averting, minimizing and addressing loss and
damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme
weather events and slow onset events, and the role of sustainable development in
reducing the risk of loss and damage. “
 eigener Artikel, erstmals
 aber dieser Artikel „does not involve or provide a basis for any liability or
compensation;”
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Exkurs: Marktmechanismen
 Emissionshandel erlaubt den Transfer von Emissionen bzw. Reduktionen zwischen Firmen /
Sektoren / Ländern gegen Geld
 Theorie: Emissionen können dort reduziert werden, wo es am wenigstens kostet
 Kyoto Protokoll etablierte internationales System
 Transfer von „Assigned Amount Units“ (AAUs)
 Projekte in anderen Industrieländern (Joint Implementation, JI)
 Projekte in Entwicklungsländern (Clean Development Mechanism, CDM)
 Probleme mit Zusätzlichkeit
 Probleme mit nachhaltiger Entwicklung
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M a r k t m e c h a n i s m e n i m PA
 „Parties shall, where engaging on a voluntary basis in cooperative approaches that
involve the use of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes towards nationally
determined contributions, promote sustainable development and ensure environmental
integrity and transparency, including in governance, and shall apply robust accounting to
ensure, inter alia, the avoidance of double counting, [...]”.
 Sustainable development mechanism
 “Nachfolger” des CDM
 Ziele:
 “To promote the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions while fostering sustainable
development;
 To contribute to the reduction of emission levels in the host Party, which will benefit
from mitigation activities resulting in emission reductions that can also be used by
another Party to fulfil its nationally determined contribution
 To deliver an overall mitigation in global emissions.”
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Legaler Charakter
 Manche Aspekte sind legal bindend (“shall”), andere nicht (“should”)
 Keine Zustimmung des US Senats benötigt (laut US Regierung)
 “Each Party shall prepare, communicate and maintain successive nationally determined
contributions that it intends to achieve. Parties shall pursue domestic mitigation
measures, with the aim of achieving the objectives of such contributions.“
 “Developed country Parties should continue taking the lead by undertaking economywide absolute emission reduction targets. Developing country Parties should continue
enhancing their mitigation efforts, and are encouraged to move over time towards
economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national
circumstances”
 Inkrafttreten
 Benötigt Ratifizerung von 55 Staaten, die zusammen mindestens 55% der globalen
Emissionen ausmachen
 22. April: „Signing Ceremony“. Unterschrift von 175 Ländern.
 Aktueller Status Ratifizierung: 17 Ländern, 0.04% der globalen Emissionen
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F e h l e n d : I n t e r n a t i o n a l e r Tr a n s p o r t
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Beide Sektoren haben substantielle Emissionen: 5% (Flugverkehr) und 3% (Schiffsverkehr)
Prognostiziertes Wachstum bis 2050: 50% - 270%
Im Abschlusstext keine Referenz mehr zum Flug- und Schiffsverkehr
International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) will in 2016 einen Marktmechanismus
beschließen, aber aktuell Vorschlag für „pre-implementation phase“
 International Maritime
Organisation (IMO) hat
Effizienzstandards
beschlossen
 Kein Emissionsziel bevor
mehr Daten über
Emissionen einzelner
Schiffe gesammelt wurden
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Reaktion der Märkte
Peabody Energy
Solar City
Arch Coal
Vestas Wind
Brian Ricketts, Secretary-General of Euracoal: “The climate bandwagon is rolling and gathering
speed such that the fossil fuel industry will spend the coming years and decades in the
spotlight for all the wrong reasons. [It] will be hated and vilified, in the same way that slave
traders were once hated and vilified.”
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Danke für die
Aufmerksamkeit! Fragen?
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Kontakt:
Jan Kersting
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI
Mail: [email protected]
Tel.: +49 721 6809 474
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